fix TZ parsing logic for identifying POSIX-form strings

fix TZ parsing logic for identifying POSIX-form strings

previously, the contents of the TZ variable were considered a
candidate for a file/path name only if they began with a colon or
contained a slash before any comma. the latter was very sloppy logic
to avoid treating any valid POSIX TZ string as a file name, but it
also triggered on values that are not valid POSIX TZ strings,
including 3-letter timezone names without any offset.

instead, only treat the TZ variable as POSIX form if it begins with a
nonzero standard time name followed by +, -, or a digit.

also, special case GMT and UTC to always be treated as POSIX form
(with implicit zero offset) so that a stray file by the same name
cannot break software that depends on setting TZ=GMT or TZ=UTC.